Who starts at point?

If the season started today, who starts at Point Guard?

While the Dallas Mavericks haven’t stepped foot on a basketball court in over a month, they are still a few weeks away from beginning their off-season in earnest.  Continuing the theme of recent summers, the Mavs have a lot of decisions to make regarding how their roster will be made up heading into the 2015-2016 season. One big question mark involves the point guard position.  With Rajon Rondo no longer in the mix, the Mavericks will have to decide whether they go hard after a point guard or stay put with what they have and spend their time and money in other areas.  This free agent year doesn’t exactly boast a strong list of point-guard-of-the-future types nor does the Mavs position in the draft lend itself to finding a start-now point guard either.  With that being said, let’s assume the Mavericks stand pat at the point guard position throughout the draft and free agency, leaving the job in the hands of one of the three point guards currently on the roster.  In order to determine the best candidate for the job, we need to understand the pro as cons of each player in the starting role as well “other factors” the Mavs may look at when determining who is best suited to start at point guard.

The first candidate is Devin Harris the 6 3’ Point Guard out of Wisconsin who has a career avg. of 12.1 points, 4.7 assists and 1.1 steals. 

Pros: Harris was originally drafted by the Mavericks before the 2004-2005 season and has spent a large part of his career as a starter.  Whenever Harris is on the court he plays with high energy and gets the most out of the pick and roll with whatever big man he is playing with.  Harris is also one of the Mavericks’ better perimeter defenders which is extremely important in the point-guard-rich Western Conference.  This past season Harris shot his second best percentage beyond the arc at 35.7 percent.  This was a point of emphasis for Harris last off-season and you can expect that he will work equally as hard on his outside shot this off-season.  If Harris can stay healthy and hit the outside shot, he could make a huge impact as the starting point guard for the Mavericks next season.

Cons: For the past three seasons Harris has been a key cog in the Mavericks second unit off the bench.  Rick Carlisle trusts Harris to run the second unit particularly because he was arguably the Mavericks best overall point guard last season while still coming off the bench.  This is important for the Mavericks who often rely on the second unit to do the heavy lifting throughout each season.  Harris is also entering into his 12^th season in the NBA and after primarily coming off the bench the past two seasons, switching back to a starting role may take its toll on Harris.  Harris has been able to stay fresh averaging around 20 minutes a game the past two seasons and that may be the key to keeping him healthy and playing at a high level. 

Other factors: Picking a starting point guard isn’t as easy as looking at the stats and picking the guy with the highest assists and scoring average.  The Mavericks are all about match ups so many things have to be considered when picking who starts and who comes off the bench.  With several looming questions regarding the make-up of the Mavericks roster, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where Harris would be most effective.  If the Mavericks are able to acquire De Andre Jordan this off-season, Harris may be most effective starting and working with Jordan on the pick and roll, creating Dallas’ own version of Lob City.  If Tyson Chandler is still in a Dallas uniform, Harris may be most effective in his usual role off the bench. 

The second candidate is Raymond Felton the 6 1’ point guard out of North Carolina who has a career avg. of 12.7 points, 6.3 assists and 1.4 steals.

Pros: Felton has the most extensive starting experience of all the candidates.  While he did not play much for the Mavs last season, Felton proved that he was a team player who was willing to accept whatever role he was given.  Dirk Nowitzki was not shy about praising Felton’s ability to be a professional which was important recognition coming from the all-time face of the franchise.  Felton has shown the ability to hit the 3 point shot at times in his career, shooting a career high 46 percent with Denver in the 2010-2011.  While he shot below 30 percent last season, that has more to do with limited opportunity that anything else. Felton has also shown the ability to play heavy minutes on a consistent basis as he averaged over 30 minutes per game in his first nine seasons in the league until seeing limited action last year.  Felton also spent a good amount of time playing alongside Carmelo Anthony and while this may not seem to be relevant, anyone who can play with Carmelo and excel in any way deserves some recognition.  Overall, while he did not prove much with the Mavericks last season, he has a solid resume and certainly eased concerns about his off-court issues with the way he handled his limited role last season.

Cons: Felton is least familiar with the Dallas Mavericks as a whole.  He was new last season and played limited minutes, most of which were with the second and even third units.  The fact that he has not played extended minutes with the Mavericks’ starters may impact how his starting candidacy is viewed.  Felton will be playing his 11^th NBA season and has averaged over 30 MPG in all but one of them.  While he played limited time last season, his age and NBA miles will catch up to him at some point.  Finally, while off court concerns never materialized last season, they have to be in the back of Rick Carlisle’s mind as he considers giving the keys of the team to a guy he may or may not fully trust.

Other Factors: Again the Mavericks’ off-season decisions could play into whether or not Felton fits as a starter.  What happens if Monta Ellis opts out and leaves the Mavs? What happens if Monta stays?  Felton has shown the ability to play well alongside ball dominant players and so starting alongside Monta may actually be a fit.  Carlisle and Co. will also have to decide whether or not Felton is more important in a specific role off the bench or as a starter.

The third candidate is J.J. Barea the 6 0’ point guard out of Northeastern University who has career avg. of 8.2 points and 3.4 assists.

Pros: Barea has not started many games at Point Guard in the NBA but he gave Mavs fans a treat during the playoffs when he moved into the starting lineup versus the Houston Rockets.  Barea averaged 11.8 points and 7.4 assists during the Playoffs, both well above his career averages.  Barea is also a gritty defender who does not mind playing in the trenches, taking charges and going hard after loose balls.  Barea also has the highest career 3 point percentage of his career at just under 35 percent.

Cons: Barea created himself quite a niche with the Dallas Mavericks culminating in 2011 during the Mavericks title run.  Barea picked up where he left off when he returned this year carving out the same type role that he had before.  This role Barea plays off the bench is vital to the Mavericks and there isn’t another player that fills it as well as he does.  Barea also has very limited experience as a starter and it is quite possible that by playing extensive time outside of his typical role he could lose his impact as a contributor for the Mavericks.

 Other Factors: Barea is at his best averaging between 15 and 20 minutes a night.  He has a specific role on the Mavericks and he does it better than anyone.  With that being said, it would be in the Mavericks’ best interest to keep Barea in his typical role as a back-up point guard/shooting guard, rather than utilizing him as the starting point guard.

 With a working understand of the options the Mavericks have, it would seem apparent that the starting role is most likely to go to either Devin Harris or Raymond Felton.  While many may be quick to discount Felton, had he not been injured to begin last season, he may have been starting back then.  There are several ways to go here and the fact is that both players could have success in the starting role.  

           With that being said, I am predicting that Raymond Felton will be the starting point guard for the Dallas Mavericks to begin next season.  Felton weathered the year on the bench for the Mavericks and that stuck out to the veterans on the Mavericks squad, most notably Dirk Nowitzki.  Felton has proven his ability as a starter over a long period of time and will be able to adjust whether the starting lineup is similar or different from previous seasons.  Even though Harris is a much better defender than Felton, let’s face it: no one on the Mavs current roster is going to stop the west best point guards.  The Mavericks are better off utilizing their zone defense anchored by either Tyson Chandler or DeAndre Jordan which will place less emphasis on Felton.  While this may not be a sexy pick, expect Felton to play solid at the point for the Mavericks this year, which will allow Harris and Barea to play where they play best.  If Felton can win the trust of Carlisle and succeed in this role, it’s a huge win for the Mavericks.  

- David Miller